Wednesday, April 03, 2013

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Spain Says 2014 Taxes to Depend on EU Verdict on Deficit Targets. Spain’s government is waiting for the result of negotiations with the European Union on its budget deficit goals before deciding on its tax policy for 2014. ’’Tax decisions for 2014 haven’t been taken yet and will obviously depend on negotiations with the European Commission and other EU partners,’’ Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro said during a conference in Madrid yesterday. ’’It will all depend on the deficit targets that are established and on their underlying economic assumptions.’’
  • Suntech Unit Bankruptcy Had Roots in Deadbeat Customers. Suntech Power Holdings Co. (STP), forced to put its Chinese solar unit into bankruptcy last month, began that slide into insolvency in 2009 when customers linked to the founder couldn’t pay their bills and the company booked the sales as revenue anyway, regulatory filings show. 
  • Asian Stocks Drop a Third Day, led by Raw-Material Shares. Asian stocks dropped for a third day as a decline in shares of raw-material producers offset a surge in Japanese equities as the central bank began a two-day policy meeting. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) slid 0.2 percent to 133.58 as of 11:27 a.m in Tokyo, reversing an earlier advance of as much as 0.3 percent.
  • Kim Vows Increased Climate-Change Role to Help Ease Poverty. World Bank President Jim Yong Kim vowed to boost the lender’s contribution to easing the effects of climate change as part of a new goal to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. Helping mitigate shocks, including those caused by global warming, is one of the conditions needed to reach the poverty reduction target, Kim said in a speech at Georgetown University in Washington today. Also required is sustained fast growth in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and reduced income inequality, he said. 
  • WTI Crude Drops as U.S. Oil Stockpiles Gain. West Texas Intermediate fell for the second time in three days after an industry-funded report showed U.S. crude stockpiles increased the most in four weeks and a government order prevented the restart of a pipeline to the Texas Gulf Coast. Futures slipped as much as 0.7 percent in New York after climbing 0.1 percent yesterday.
  • Iron Ore Prices Seen Falling Through Q3 2014 on Supply, NAB Says. New iron ore supply outpaces increases in steel output and will probably push prices lower through third quarter of 2014, National Australia Bank says in report today. Prices to fall to $115/t in final quarter this year vs $127/t in second quarter, analysts James Glenn and Rob Brooker say. Forecasts $100/t in third and final quarters of 2014.
  • Obama Control-Tower Shutdowns Spur Mounting Airport Suits. Airports that serve Ohio State University and the headquarters of State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co. joined a lawsuit offensive to stop the U.S. from shutting air-traffic control operations as part of government- wide spending cuts. Since the first suits were filed in federal appeals courts in Manhattan and Washington last week, at least eight more airports brought cases challenging closures scheduled to begin April 7. They include the Central Illinois Regional Airport in Bloomington, where State Farm is based, which handled more than 579,000 passengers in 2011, and the Ohio State University airport in Columbus. “I’ve never seen an issue galvanize people like this,” Spencer Dickerson, executive director of the Alexandria, Virginia-based Contract Tower Association, said in an interview. “The administration made the closing of control towers the poster-child for sequestration.”  
  • Kerry: North Korean Reactor Restart Provocative Act. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said it would be a “serious step” if North Korea violates its obligations by following through on a threat to restart nuclear facilities shut by a 2007 disarmament accord. The U.S. is committed to defending itself and its allies and “will not be subject to irrational or reckless provocation” by North Korea, Kerry said yesterday after meeting in Washington with South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung Se. “If they restart their nuclear facility at Yongbyon, that is in direct violation of their international obligations,” Kerry said. “It would be a provocative act.”
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Seoul Seeks Ability to Make Nuclear Fuel. South Korea is pressing the Obama administration for U.S. permission to produce its own nuclear fuel, a move that nonproliferation experts said could trigger a wider nuclear-arms race in North Asia and the Middle East. The negotiation between Seoul and Washington, though part of a broader, long-term civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, is taking place as nuclear pressures swell on both sides of the Korean peninsula. North Korea has expanded its atomic-weapons capability in recent months. It announced Tuesday that it was reopening a reactor complex used to harvest weapons-grade plutonium. Those actions have fueled calls in South Korea for the government in Seoul to respond by developing its own atomic-weapons capability.
  • Silver Bears Pounce as Manufacturing Sputters. Silver prices plunged deeper into bear-market territory, as weak manufacturing data from the world's major economies stoked investor fears that the metal's gradual decline this year is turning into a rout. Silver has shed over 20% of its value since October and its losses this year surpass most other commodities, including gold.
  • The Strange Maths of Tesla’s $500/month Model S. Great news for those who have been coveting the 2013 Car of the Year but can’t quite pony up the $60,000+ price tag: the Tesla Model S now has a lease option, announced today after some online hype from founder Elon Musk.
  • Half of Hedge Funds Think Their Competitors Are Cheating. Hedge-fund employees seem to agree with federal authorities that their industry needs to clean up its act. Almost half of hedge-fund professionals believe their competitors are engaged in illegal activity and more than a third say they have felt pressure to break rules at work, according to an online survey released Tuesday. Meanwhile, 30% of respondents said they had witnessed misconduct on the job.
Fox News:
  • Senators vow to oppose UN arms trade treaty. Republican senators -- joined by at least one Democrat -- ripped the international arms trade treaty approved Tuesday by the U.N. General Assembly, calling it a "non-starter" and vowing to oppose Senate ratification. The treaty approved Tuesday was the first of its kind. The resolution was approved at the U.N. by a vote of 154 to 3 with 23 abstentions. But in the U.S. Senate, which must ratify the treaty in order for the United States to be a party to it, opposition is much stronger. 
MarketWatch.com:
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
New York Times:
  • A Debate in the Open on the Fed. Federal Reserve officials regularly air their views in public speeches, but they rarely engage in public debates. On Tuesday night, two of the officials who disagree most sharply about the Fed’s current policy did just that. The exchange between Charles L. Evans, an outspoken advocate for the Fed’s efforts to stimulate the economy, and Jeffrey M. Lacker, the Fed’s most persistent internal critic, suggested their differences are as much a matter of temperament as economics.
Washington Post:
  • Obama administration pushes banks to make home loans to people with weaker credit. The Obama administration is engaged in a broad push to make more home loans available to people with weaker credit, an effort that officials say will help power the economic recovery but that skeptics say could open the door to the risky lending that caused the housing crash in the first place. President Obama’s economic advisers and outside experts say the nation’s much-celebrated housing rebound is leaving too many people behind, including young people looking to buy their first homes and individuals with credit records weakened by the recession.
Telegraph: 
Yonhap News Agency: 
  • NK-Kaesong entry ban. North Korea said Wednesday it will ban South Korean workers from entering the inter-Korean industrial park in Kaesong, only allowing South Koreans currently staying at the North's border town to return home. The abrupt entry ban came after Pyongyang threatened to shut down the Kaesong Industrial Complex and launch a pre-emptive nuclear war on Seoul and Washington over South Korea-U.S. joint military drills and U.N. sanctions for its latest nuclear test. There are 861 South Koreans and seven foreign workers staying at the Kaesong complex, home to 123 labor-intensive factories. The complex, the crowning achievement of the June 2000 inter-Korean summit meeting, also employs some 54,000 North Korean workers. The complex, located just north of the DMZ, is significant because it is the only economic link between the two Koreas after Seoul suspended most exchanges with the communist country after the sinking of one of its naval ships in the Yellow Sea in March 2010.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.0 -3.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 96.75 -1.25 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.33%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (MON)/2.56
  • (CAG)/.56
  • (LNCR)/.61
  • (JOSB)/.97
  • (SCHN)/.25
  • (AYI)/.62 
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for March is estimated to rise to 200K versus 198K in February.
10:00 am EST:
  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for March is estimated to fall to 55.5 versus 56.0 in February.
10:30 am EST:
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +2,050,000 barrels versus a +3,256,000 barrel increase the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,000,000 barrels versus a -1,596,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,100,000 barrels versus a -4,513,000 decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +2.2% gain the prior week.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bullard speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Australia trade data and the weekly MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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