Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Stocks Rising Slightly into Final Hour on Diminishing Global Growth Fears, Less Eurozone Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Financial/Drug Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.49 -2.50%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.71 +.98%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.25 +1.31%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.64 -3.33%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 -2.40%
  • Total Put/Call .75 -1.32%
  • NYSE Arms .86 -29.68% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.48 -.17%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 134.23 -1.67%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 82.0 -1.20%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 292.17 -.18%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 18.25 +1.25 bps
  • TED Spread 21.75  +.25 bp
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  • Yield Curve 239.0 +9 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $141.80/Metric Tonne +2.24%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.20 +2.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -29.60 +.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +120 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/tech/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

1 comment:

theyenguy said...

The Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, traded strongly higher to 2.71%, turning Aggregate Credit, AGG, lower, and forcing International Treasury Bonds, BWX, European Debt, EU, and the following interest rate sectors lower: Solar, TAN, Homebuilding, ITB, Energy Partnerships, AMJ, Mortgage REITS, REM, Residential REITS, REZ, Premium REITS, KBWY, Small Cap Real Estate, ROOF, Real Estate, IYR, and Utility Stocks, XLU, seen in this Finviz Screener, lower.


What Doug Noland terms the Global Govenment Finance Bubble has finally and totally popped, on the rise in the US Ten Year Note, from 2.59% to 2.71% on Tuesday August 13, 2013, as is seen in the charts of Aggregate Credit, AGG, World Treasury Bonds, BWX, 30 Year US Govenment Bonds, EDV, 10 Year US Government Notes, TLT, International Corporate Bonds, PICB, Corporate Bonds, LQD, Mortgage Backed Bonds, MBB, Emerging Market Bonds, EMB, Junk Bonds, JNK, and Ultra Junk Bonds, UJB, trading lower. Credit broke down on Tuesday August 13, 2013, when the 30 Year US Government Bond, EDV, and the US Ten Year Note, TLT, led all of the world’s credit investments, seen in this Finviz Screener, parabolically lower.


Another word for credit is trust. Investors no longer trust in the world central bank’s monetary policies to support profitable investment choice, and to provide stimulus for credit and currency carry trade schemes enabling global growth and trade. Ben Bernanke’s, Haruhiko Kuroda’s and Mario Draghi’s monetary policies have crossed the Rubicon of sound monetary policy and have made “money good” investments bad.


While the closed end stock fund CSQ rose, its peers, PTY, AWP, PFL, RCS, and EIM, as seen in their combined ongoing Yahoo Finance Chart traded lower, communicating that the way is now down in all financial markets.


On May 24, 2013, Jesus Christ, operating at the helm of the economy of God, Epheians 1:10, enabled the bond vigilantes to call the interest rate on the US Governmant Note, ^TNX, higher to 2.01%, making for an extincton event that terminated Emerging Market Investment, EEM, and Utility Stock Investment, XLU. The rise of the interest rate on August 13 2013, to 2.71%, constituted an “apocalyptic event” that has terminated fiat money.


With the failure of credit on August 13, 2013, both the sovereignty of democratic nation states, (this being seen in World Treasury Bonds, BWX, collapsing in value), and the seigniorage of the world central banks, has failed. Jesus Christ, has pivoted the world’s economic and political paradigm from Liberalism to Authoritarianism.

From August 13, 2013, forward, regional nannycrats, will set the rules for the formation of the new money, that being diktat money, which will determine everything else.

World Stocks, VT, are tremendously leveraged over Credit, AGG, as is seen in the chart of World Stocks, relative to Credit, AGG, VT:AGG. The Risk Off ETN, OFF, and Volatility, XVZ, have been rising since August 5, 2013, confirming that a top in the stock market hass been achieved. Ambrose Evans Pritchard of The Telegraph reports Investors euphoric as US margin debt reaches 'danger' levels. Fund managers are around the world are gripped by euphoria, convinced that America is in full recovery and Europe has overcome its debt crisis.